Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election on November 7, 2024 marked a turning point not only for the political scene, but also for financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. As the practice of recent years has shown, political events and economic decisions at the highest level can significantly affect the exchange rate of bitcoin and other digital assets. Since the beginning of the year, amid the instability of the global economy and inflationary threats, the popularity of bitcoin as a tool for capital protection and asset diversification has increased by 50%. In fact, according to the research company Chainalysis, in 2023 the total capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market exceeded the $2 trillion mark, which only confirms the global interest in cryptocurrencies.
Trump has repeatedly spoken out about digital currencies and financial markets in general, and his renewed activity as a political leader is of interest and concern to investors. Expectations regarding its economic and regulatory policies may change the balance of power in the cryptocurrency sector. Against the background of rising inflation and weakening confidence in traditional currencies, bitcoin is increasingly perceived as "digital gold". Therefore, the question of how Trump's election may affect the bitcoin exchange rate is becoming increasingly relevant for investors, analysts and ordinary citizens concerned about the future of their assets.
In the 2024 election campaign, Trump made a number of statements that indirectly related to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies. Trump and his supporters promised to strengthen control over financial flows and strengthen the national economy, which could include regulation of the cryptocurrency sector. Although no specific measures were presented, the campaign's rhetoric suggested an interest in digital assets as strategic tools. Before the election, cryptocurrency markets had already begun to react to Trump's statements, which caused an increase in volatility amid expectations of future measures. Among the main expectations is a possible reduction in regulatory pressure on digital assets, which could stimulate the growth of investments in bitcoin.
One of the main themes of the Trump campaign was monetary policy and the intention to influence the policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Since the economy is in a state of uncertainty, many experts predict the possibility of lowering the Fed's interest rate to maintain economic growth. This, in turn, may lead to a weakening of the dollar, which increases the attractiveness of bitcoin as a protective asset. The weakening of the dollar may cause an increase in demand for cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, as investors will look for alternative assets to protect their investments. This is especially important in the context of potential changes in tax and fiscal policy that could strengthen inflation expectations.
Trump's victory could affect the composition of regulatory bodies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It is expected that the new appointments may lead to reforms that will reduce the burden on cryptocurrency companies and facilitate the institutional adoption of bitcoin. Recently, a draft “Bitcoin Law” has been discussed, which involves the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve and recognizes cryptocurrencies as an important element of the US financial system. These possible reforms and changes can stimulate the growth of interest of large investors in bitcoin and reduce barriers to entry into the cryptocurrency market, which can have a positive impact on its course.
The cryptocurrency market has already begun to react to Trump's victory, and the first indicators indicate increased interest in bitcoin from institutional and private investors. After the election, there was a significant increase in the bitcoin exchange rate, which indicates a positive reaction to potential changes in US economic policy. The political stability caused by Trump's return to power may also contribute to strengthening investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. In the short term, many analysts expect the bitcoin exchange rate to reach new historical highs. In addition, Trump's victory may lead to the growth of other crypto assets, as large investors will seek diversification in a changing political situation.
Despite the optimistic forecasts, there are a number of risks and uncertainties that may affect the bitcoin exchange rate. First, Trump's policies can be volatile and unpredictable, which can cause volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Secondly, possible inflationary processes and changes in monetary policy can have both positive and negative effects on bitcoin. Also, the trade and foreign economic decisions of the Trump administration may lead to increased global economic instability, which may affect the bitcoin exchange rate in both positive and negative ways.
